First or Last: An Economic Model of Contest Judging and Early Performance Bias

*Tim Barmby
Economics, University of Aberdeen

Ben Kriechel
ROA Maastricht University

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     Last modified: December 2, 2010
     Presentation date: 03/12/2011 10:45 AM in NH 1140, Session C
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Abstract
It has been observed that in sequential tournaments performing early can reduce an individual’s probability of winning even when the order of performance has been randomly assigned. We offer an explanation of this which doesn’t depend on extra assumptions about the psychological make-up of judges but depends only on judges’ having some uncertainty about their assessment, and that they learn.